The Monopoly Is Over: How Moscow Lost the Caucasus It Spent Thirty Years Selling Back to Itself

There is a business model they don’t teach in international relations textbooks, but it ran flawlessly across the South Caucasus for three decades. The logic is simple and ruthless: engineer a threat, freeze it at the right temperature — dangerous enough that no one feels safe, contained enough that nothing actually explodes — then sell protection from it to both sides simultaneously. Armenia pays in loyalty and a military base at Gyumri. Azerbaijan pays in restraint and gas contracts. You sit in the middle and collect rent from both. A frozen conflict is an asset that generates revenue indefinitely. A resolved conflict is the end of the business.
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